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原文信息：Optimizing investment and transportation decisions for the Europeannatural gas supplychain原文链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261923002234Highlights•This paper addresses the European natural gas supply chain with severaltiers.• An optimization model is proposed to obtain investment andtransportation decisions.• Optimal decisions increase the social welfare bynearly three billion.• Excluding Russia decreases the social welfare by 10%for the next fiveyears.摘要我们将欧洲天然气供应链分为几个层次，包括生产商、中间商和消费者，其中天然气和液化天然气可以通过长期合同或现货市场进行交易。该网络问题被表述为一个非线性混合整数规划模型，可以为生产商提供最优生产和出口决策、为中间商提供进口与存储决策、为欧盟国家提供关于新管道和液化天然气再气化终端的基础设施投资决策。这些新管道和液化天然气再气化终端在五年内最大限度地提高了欧盟天然气市场的总体社会福利。我们进行了几个案例研究，以在不同条件下检查该网络。我们首先比较了实际决策和最优决策，以提供一些见解。然后，我们考察了基础设施决策对社会福利的影响。我们的结果显示，新的基础设施投资增加了近30亿的社会福利总额。此外，我们还考察了社会福利对将俄罗斯天然气供应排除在市场之外的敏感性，在分别考虑和不考虑基础设施投资决策的场景下。结果表明，如果俄罗斯天然气供应被排除在市场之外，那么26个欧盟国家的社会福利和累计天然气消费量将分别下降10%和15%。结果还表明，考虑对液化天然气终端和管道进行基础设施投资将会降低消费国的供应风险。AbstractWeaddress the European natural gas supply chain with several tiers, includingproducers, mid-streamers, and consumers, where natural gas and LiquefiedNatural Gas (LNG) could be traded via long-term contracts or spot markets.This network problem is formulated as a non-linear mixed-integer programmingmodel which provides the optimal production and export decisions of producers,import and storage decisions of mid-streamers, and infrastructure investmentdecisions of European Union (EU) countries with respect to new pipelines andLNG regasification terminals that maximize the total social welfare in the EUnatural gas market over a five-year horizon. We conduct several case studiesto examine this network under different conditions. We first compare theactual and optimal decisions to provide insights. Then, we examine the effectof infrastructure decisions on social welfare. Our results reveal that newinfrastructure investments increase the total social welfare by nearly threebillion. In addition, we examine its sensitivity to the exclusion of Russiangas supply from the market with and without the infrastructure decisions.Results suggest that if Russian gas supply is excluded from the market, thenthe social welfare and cumulative natural gas consumption of 26 EU countriesdecrease by 10% and 15%, respectively and that considering infrastructureinvestments on LNG terminals and pipelines would reduce supply risk ofconsumer countries.KeywordsNatural gasEnergy systems modelingNon-linear mixed-integer optimizationConsumer welfareInfrastructure decisionsFig. 1. Therepresentation of the natural gas supply chain.Fig. 2. Comparison of actualand optimal consumption distributions for consumer countries. Dark orange andlight orange bars represent the range below and above the median of the givendistribution.Fig. 3. The effect of investments on consumption of 26 EUcountries.Fig. 4. The effect of investments on purchase price of 26 EUcountries.关于Applied Energy本期小编：胖丁顿；审核人：柴汝宽《AppliedEnergy》是世界能源领域著名学术期刊，在全球出版巨头爱思唯尔 (Elsevier) 旗下，1975年创刊，影响因子11.446，CiteScore20.4，高被引论文ESI全球工程期刊排名第4，谷歌学术全球学术期刊第50，本刊旨在为清洁能源转换技术、能源过程和系统优化、能源效率、智慧能源、环境污染物及温室气体减排、能源与其他学科交叉融合、以及能源可持续发展等领域提供交流分享和合作的平台。开源（OpenAccess）姊妹新刊《Advances in Applied Energy》现已正式上线。在《AppliedEnergy》的成功经验基础上，致力于发表应用能源领域顶尖科研成果，并为广大科研人员提供一个快速权威的学术交流和发表平台，欢迎关注！公众号团队小编招募长期开放，欢迎发送自我简介（含教育背景、研究方向等内容）至wechat@applied-energy.org点击“阅读原文”喜欢我们的内容？点个“赞”或者“再看”支持下吧！ |